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Por Leandro Manzoni<\/p>\n
Investing.com – A deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o da infla\u00e7\u00e3o para este e pr\u00f3ximos anos continuam nas proje\u00e7\u00f5es dos economistas consultados pelo Banco Central no Boletim Focus divulgado nesta segunda-feira (03). Com exce\u00e7\u00e3o de 2023, todos os anos tiveram reajuste para cima nas estimativas, o que acabou impactando tamb\u00e9m as proje\u00e7\u00f5es para a taxa b\u00e1sica de juros – Selic – para os pr\u00f3ximos anos.<\/p>\n
As decis\u00f5es vem na esteira ap\u00f3s IPCA-15 de outubro vir acima da expectativa do mercado e ata do Copom mais hawkish do que o comunicado p\u00f3s-reuni\u00e3o. Na quarta-feira, sair\u00e1 os dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o de outubro.<\/p>\n
Confira abaixo as expectativas para IPCA, PIB, Selic e d\u00f3lar divulgados nesta segunda-feira (18).<\/p>\n
Infla\u00e7\u00e3o
Os economistas consultados pela autoridade monet\u00e1ria elevaram as estimativas para o IPCA neste ano de 9,17% para 9,33%, enquanto h\u00e1 4 semanas estavam em 8,59%. A estimativa do IPCA continua acima tanto da meta de 3,75% como do limite superior de 5,25%.<\/p>\n
Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao IPCA de 2022, a deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o da perspectiva inflacion\u00e1ria prossegue, com as estimativas elevadas de 4,55% para 4,63%, a d\u00e9cima sextasemana seguida de deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o da expectativa inflacion\u00e1ria. Enquanto a proje\u00e7\u00e3o para 2023 se manteve em 3,27%, para 2024 avan\u00e7ou pela terceira semana seguida, de 3,07% para 3,1%, acima da meta de 3% estipulado para o per\u00edodo.<\/p>\n
A expectativa de infla\u00e7\u00e3o se deteriorou ap\u00f3s o IPCA-15 avan\u00e7ar 1,2%, acima do esperado de 0,97% e do registrado no m\u00eas anterior de 1,14%.<\/p>\n
PIB
Os economistas voltaram a rebaixar as estimativas para a alta do PIB no fim do ano, com avan\u00e7o projetado de 4,94% para 4,93%, enquanto h\u00e1 quatro semanas estava em 5,04%. Foi a quarta queda de proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o PIB deste ano.<\/p>\n
Para 2022, a estimativa de tamb\u00e9m caiu, de 1,2% para 1%, quinta semana seguida de redu\u00e7\u00e3o das estimativas. A expectativas para 2023 se manteve em 2%, enquanto para 2024 ca\u00edram novamente de 2,2% para 2,05%, refletindo a promessa de aperto monet\u00e1rio maior do que projetado inicialmente pelo Copom.<\/p>\n
Selic
J\u00e1 a proje\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa Selic subiu de 8,75% para 9,25% no fim deste ano, enquanto h\u00e1 quatro semanas estava em 8,25%. Os economistas mant\u00eam a proje\u00e7\u00e3o de alta de 1,5 ponto percentual na taxa Selic na \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o do ano em dezembro, seguindo a promessa do Banco Central no \u00faltimo comunicado.<\/p>\n
Para 2022, a proje\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m se alterou, com a expectativa de encerrar o ano que vem de 10,5% para 11%. As proje\u00e7\u00f5es para 2023 tamb\u00e9m subiram, de 7,25% para 7,5%, como tamb\u00e9m em 2024, de 6,75% para 7%.<\/p>\n
D\u00f3lar
Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar, as apostas se mantiveram em R$ 5,50 para 2021, enquanto h\u00e1 quatro semanas a estimativa estava em R$ 5,25. Para 2022, as estimativas tamb\u00e9m se manteve em R$ 5,50. J\u00e1 as proje\u00e7\u00f5es de 2023 subiram, com expectativa de fechar o ano de R$ 5,25 para R$ 5,30, enquanto para 2024 continuou em R$ 5,20.<\/p>\n
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