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Maior produtor de cana-de-a\u00e7\u00facar do mundo, o Brasil ter\u00e1 na safra 2021\/22 seu pior desempenho dos \u00faltimos 10 anos. A terceira estimativa de produ\u00e7\u00e3o da Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), divulgada hoje, indicou uma oferta de 568,43 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, 13,8% menor que a produ\u00e7\u00e3o da \u00faltima safra e o menor volume desde as 560,9 milh\u00f5es de toneladas produzidas no ciclo 2011\/12.<\/p>\n
Os dados apresentados hoje representam um novo corte na estimativa. O primeiro levantamento, realizado em maio, apontou para uma produ\u00e7\u00e3o de 628,13 milh\u00f5es de toneladas de cana. Desde ent\u00e3o, a Conab vem reduzindo sua previs\u00e3o para a safra. Em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a agosto, o dado de hoje representa uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de 4%.<\/p>\n
\u201cA terceira estimativa, da safra 2021\/22, considera os efeitos clim\u00e1ticos adversos da estiagem durante o ciclo produtivo das lavouras e as baixas temperaturas registradas em junho e julho deste ano, inclusive com epis\u00f3dios de geadas em algumas \u00e1reas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, sobretudo em S\u00e3o Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul e Paran\u00e1\u201d, diz o relat\u00f3rio da Conab.<\/p>\n
Com a menor oferta de mat\u00e9ria-prima, os efeitos sobre os derivados passam a ser inevit\u00e1veis. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o nacional de a\u00e7\u00facar est\u00e1 estimada em 33,9 milh\u00f5es de toneladas na safra 2021\/22, o pior desempenho dos \u00faltimos dois anos. O volume representa uma queda de 8,1% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao que havia sido projetado em agosto e uma retra\u00e7\u00e3o de 17,7% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 safra passada.<\/p>\n
Apesar da menor produ\u00e7\u00e3o de cana, as estimativas iniciais da safra indicavam que a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de a\u00e7\u00facar poderia ser maior que a anterior, o que acabou por n\u00e3o se concretizar. \u201cCom a quebra de safra no Centro-Sul do Brasil e a \u00cdndia prevendo direcionar alguns milh\u00f5es de toneladas de a\u00e7\u00facar para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol \u2013 j\u00e1 que adiantou em dois anos seu cronograma de aumento na mistura de biocombust\u00edvel \u00e0 gasolina \u2013 a commodity registrar\u00e1 um d\u00e9ficit global da oferta na atual temporada, e esta perspectiva est\u00e1 prevista se estender at\u00e9 a pr\u00f3xima temporada\u201d, diz a Conab.<\/p>\n
Para o etanol a situa\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 diferente. A oferta total do combust\u00edvel, consideranbdo a produ\u00e7\u00e3o proveniente da cana-de-a\u00e7\u00facar e do milho, ser\u00e1 de 28,27 bilh\u00f5es de litros, o menor volume produzido pelo Brasil nos \u00faltimos cinco anos. O resultado representa um corte de 3,25% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 estimativa de agosto e uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de 13,7% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao volume produzido na safra passada.<\/p>\n
\u201cHouve grande concorr\u00eancia de cultivos anuais, como soja e milho, que ganharam \u00f3tima rentabilidade recentemente e influenciaram diretamente na destina\u00e7\u00e3o de \u00e1rea para cana-de-a\u00e7\u00facar\u201d, tamb\u00e9m destaca a Conab.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Bloomberg L\u00ednea Brasil<\/p>\n
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