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Com a infla\u00e7\u00e3o sem dar tr\u00e9gua e a guerra no Leste Europeu pressionando ainda mais os pre\u00e7os de alimentos e combust\u00edveis, o Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) elevou a taxa b\u00e1sica de juros pela nona reuni\u00e3o consecutiva. Com um aumento de 1,00 ponto porcentual de ontem, a Selic chegou a 11,75% ao ano, o maior patamar desde abril de 2017 (12,25%).<\/p>\n
Mesmo com os choques causados pela invas\u00e3o russa na Ucr\u00e2nia, o Copom manteve a promessa de tirar o p\u00e9 do acelerador. Nas \u00faltimas tr\u00eas reuni\u00f5es, o colegiado havia aumentado a Selic em 1,5 ponto porcentual em cada uma. Ap\u00f3s ter chegado \u00e0 m\u00ednima hist\u00f3rica de 2,00% ao ano durante a pandemia, a taxa b\u00e1sica j\u00e1 acumula um ajuste de 9,75 pontos desde mar\u00e7o passado.<\/p>\n
A \u00faltima vez que houve nove aumentos seguidos (um ano de aperto) foi entre abril de 2013 e abril de 2014. Na \u00e9poca, o avan\u00e7o foi mais modesto, de 7,25% para 11,00%, ou 3,75 pontos porcentuais, nas v\u00e9speras da campanha de reelei\u00e7\u00e3o da ex-presidente Dilma Rousseff (PT). O ritmo de alta dos juros deste ciclo j\u00e1 \u00e9 o maior desde 1999, quando, durante a crise cambial, o BC aumentou a Selic em 20 pontos porcentuais de uma s\u00f3 vez.<\/p>\n
O colegiado tamb\u00e9m avisou que continuar\u00e1 subindo a taxa. Para a pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00e3o, no come\u00e7o de maio, a sinaliza\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 de nova alta de 1,00 ponto, levando a Selic para 12,75%. O BC pregou cautela, mas deixou claro que, sob a incerteza ampliada com a guerra, poder\u00e1 estender o aperto monet\u00e1rio o quanto for necess\u00e1rio para trazer as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o, principalmente de 2023, para perto da meta.<\/p>\n
“O Copom avalia que o momento exige serenidade para avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da extens\u00e3o e dura\u00e7\u00e3o dos atuais choques. Caso esses se provem mais persistentes ou maiores do que o antecipado, o Comit\u00ea estar\u00e1 pronto para ajustar o tamanho do ciclo de aperto monet\u00e1rio”, afirmou o BC, ap\u00f3s a reuni\u00e3o.<\/p>\n
TEND\u00caNCIA
O aviso de que os juros ter\u00e3o mais um aumento de 1,00 ponto porcentual em maio mostra que o BC est\u00e1 comprometido a fazer o que for preciso para trazer a infla\u00e7\u00e3o de volta ao centro da meta no ano que vem. A avalia\u00e7\u00e3o foi feita pela economista-chefe do Santander (SA:SANB11), Ana Paula Vescovi, ap\u00f3s leitura do comunicado do Copom.<\/p>\n
Conforme a economista, que foi secret\u00e1ria do Tesouro no governo Michel Temer, a atua\u00e7\u00e3o dos bancos centrais diante da escalada das commodities ap\u00f3s a guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia \u00e9 para inibir os efeitos secund\u00e1rios do choque de oferta. No Brasil, o BC vai na mesma dire\u00e7\u00e3o, e deve deixar a porta aberta, conforme expectativa de Vescovi, para mais um aumento de 0,5 ponto porcentual ap\u00f3s a reuni\u00e3o de maio, para quando o Copom j\u00e1 indicou que levar\u00e1 a Selic para 12,75%.<\/p>\n
Segundo a economista-chefe do Santander, o movimento do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos Estados Unidos) de come\u00e7ar a subir os juros ontem, indicando mais seis aumentos dos fed funds at\u00e9 o fim do ano, coloca press\u00e3o sobre a Selic. A avalia\u00e7\u00e3o dela \u00e9 de que o ciclo de alta da Selic termina com a taxa a 13,25%, o que deve ser suficiente para que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o possa convergir ao centro da meta de 2023 (3,25%).<\/p>\n
O Brasil se consolidou como sede de uma das maiores taxas de juros reais (descontada a infla\u00e7\u00e3o) do mundo. C\u00e1lculos do site MoneYou e da Infinity Asset Management indicam que o juro real brasileiro est\u00e1 agora em 7,10% ao ano. \u00c9 o segundo juro real mais alto, entre as 40 economias mais relevantes. S\u00f3 fica atr\u00e1s da R\u00fassia, que recentemente teve de elevar sua taxa nominal de 9,5% para 20% e estabelecer o controle de capitais, sob a guerra.<\/p>\n
(COLABOROU EDUARDO LAGUNA)<\/p>\n
As informa\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o do jornal O Estado de S. Paulo.<\/p>\n
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