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O choque de alta das commodities nos \u00faltimos meses deve servir de impulso para a economia do Brasil neste ano, por causa das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es e seus efeitos financeiros. O vento, no entanto, poder\u00e1 mudar em 2023. V\u00e1rios economistas consideram em seus cen\u00e1rios de m\u00e9dio prazo uma perda de f\u00f4lego nas cota\u00e7\u00f5es no pr\u00f3ximo ano.<\/p>\n
Relat\u00f3rio do Banco Mundial projeta al\u00edvios nas cota\u00e7\u00f5es das mat\u00e9rias-primas, em 2023 e 2024. Nas proje\u00e7\u00f5es do banco, as commodities energ\u00e9ticas dever\u00e3o recuar, em m\u00e9dia, 12,4% em 2023 e 11,9% em 2024. J\u00e1 o pre\u00e7o das “commodities n\u00e3o energ\u00e9ticas” dever\u00e3o cair, em m\u00e9dia, 8,8% no pr\u00f3ximo ano e 3,2% em 2024.<\/p>\n
Na mesma linha, o Bradesco (SA:BBDC4) projeta um quadro de pre\u00e7os de commodities pressionados no curto prazo, mas com um al\u00edvio no m\u00e9dio prazo. Nas contas dos economistas Thiago Angelis e Myri\u00e3 Bast, que assinam o relat\u00f3rio, os pre\u00e7os globais das mat\u00e9rias-primas est\u00e3o em m\u00e9dia 35% acima dos valores indicados pelos fundamentos da economia global, como oferta e demanda.<\/p>\n
Recentes revis\u00f5es de cen\u00e1rio citaram a modera\u00e7\u00e3o nas cota\u00e7\u00f5es de commodities a partir de 2023. No m\u00eas passado, o Ita\u00fa (SA:ITUB4) revisou a proje\u00e7\u00e3o de crescimento econ\u00f4mico no Brasil em 2022 para 1%, ante 0,2% estimado anteriormente, mas baixou a estimativa de 2023 para 0,2%, ante 0,5% anteriormente, “considerando os juros mais elevados e a expectativa de alguma queda de pre\u00e7os de commodities”.<\/p>\n
A MB Associados fez movimento semelhante. Elevou a proje\u00e7\u00e3o de crescimento deste ano de zero para 0,5%, mas cortou a estimativa de 2023 tamb\u00e9m para 0,5%, ante o 1,2% projetado anteriormente. A perda de for\u00e7a esperada nas cota\u00e7\u00f5es de commodities \u00e9 um dos elementos que levaram o economista-chefe da MB Associados, Sergio Vale, a reduzir a proje\u00e7\u00e3o para o pr\u00f3ximo ano.<\/p>\n
“Tem dois elementos centrais, um dom\u00e9stico e um externo, para justificar esse crescimento fraco no ano que vem. O externo \u00e9 um crescimento mais fraco, uma economia americana talvez em recess\u00e3o. Isso j\u00e1 jogaria pre\u00e7o de commodity para baixo”, afirmou Vale (SA:VALE3). “Aqui dentro, a gente tem um cen\u00e1rio de juros.”<\/p>\n
NORMALIZA\u00c7\u00c3O<\/p>\n
Mais otimista, o Instituto de Pesquisa Econ\u00f4mica Aplicada (Ipea) estima crescimento econ\u00f4mico de 1,1% em 2022, seguido de um avan\u00e7o de 1,7% em 2023. O cen\u00e1rio considera a normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os de commodities ap\u00f3s a resolu\u00e7\u00e3o do conflito na Ucr\u00e2nia, a manuten\u00e7\u00e3o da sustentabilidade da d\u00edvida p\u00fablica e a melhora da pandemia, explicou Francisco Luna, diretor do Ipea.<\/p>\n
“O cen\u00e1rio de 2022 considera que a guerra da Ucr\u00e2nia tenha efeito (de alta) sobre pre\u00e7os de commodities. Em 2023, consideramos como cen\u00e1rio de refer\u00eancia que a guerra v\u00e1 acabar. Nossa proje\u00e7\u00e3o considera commodities com pre\u00e7os normais”, diz. Segundo Luna, o arrefecimento nos pre\u00e7os das commodities deixa de alavancar segmentos produtores e exportadores, mas, por outro lado, pode permitir que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o convirja para a meta perseguida pelo Banco Central em 2023, abrindo espa\u00e7o para redu\u00e7\u00f5es na taxa b\u00e1sica de juros.<\/p>\n
Seguindo esse racioc\u00ednio, Br\u00e1ulio Borges, economista da LCA, v\u00ea um saldo positivo, no m\u00e9dio prazo. No curto prazo, diz ele, a corre\u00e7\u00e3o para baixo nas cota\u00e7\u00f5es \u00e9 desfavor\u00e1vel para a atividade, mas, depois, pode favorecer o crescimento se vier acompanhada de al\u00edvio na pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n
As informa\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o do jornal O Estado de S. Paulo.<\/p>\n
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O choque de alta das commodities nos \u00faltimos meses deve servir de impulso para a economia do Brasil neste ano, por causa das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es e seus efeitos financeiros. O vento, no entanto, poder\u00e1 mudar em 2023. V\u00e1rios economistas consideram em seus cen\u00e1rios de m\u00e9dio prazo uma perda de f\u00f4lego nas cota\u00e7\u00f5es no pr\u00f3ximo ano. Relat\u00f3rio […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-noticias"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34445"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34445\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}