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(Reuters) – O Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) v\u00ea uma chance de 30% de a economia norte-americana entrar em recess\u00e3o ao longo do pr\u00f3ximo ano, acima de sua previs\u00e3o anterior de 15%, em meio a uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o recorde e um cen\u00e1rio macroecon\u00f4mico fraco alimentado pela invas\u00e3o russa da Ucr\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n
A \u00faltima previs\u00e3o chega cerca de uma semana depois que o Federal Reserve fez sua maior alta de juros desde 1994 para conter o aumento da infla\u00e7\u00e3o, e no momento em que v\u00e1rios outros bancos centrais tamb\u00e9m tomam medidas agressivas para apertar a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n
O Goldman Sachs tamb\u00e9m rebaixou suas estimativas do PIB dos EUA abaixo do consenso para os pr\u00f3ximos dois anos.<\/p>\n
“O Fed tem antecipado os aumentos de juros de forma mais agressiva, as expectativas para a taxa terminal aumentaram, e as condi\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras se tornaram mais apertadas e agora indicam um peso substancialmente maior sobre o crescimento – um pouco mais do que pensamos ser necess\u00e1rio”, disseram os economistas do Goldman em uma nota na segunda-feira.<\/p>\n
“Vemos agora uma probabilidade de 30% de recess\u00e3o ao longo do pr\u00f3ximo ano (ante 15% antes) e probabilidade condicional de 25% entrar em recess\u00e3o no segundo ano se a evitarmos no primeiro ano, indicando uma probabilidade cumulativa de 48% para o horizonte de dois anos (ante 35% antes)”, disseram os economistas.<\/p>\n
“Estamos cada vez mais preocupados que o Fed se sinta obrigado a responder energicamente \u00e0 infla\u00e7\u00e3o elevada e \u00e0s expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o dos consumidores se os pre\u00e7os da energia subirem ainda mais, mesmo que a atividade diminua drasticamente”, acrescentou.<\/p>\n
(Reportagem de Pushkala Aripaka e Siddarth S em Bengaluru)<\/p>\n
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(Reuters) – O Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) v\u00ea uma chance de 30% de a economia norte-americana entrar em recess\u00e3o ao longo do pr\u00f3ximo ano, acima de sua previs\u00e3o anterior de 15%, em meio a uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o recorde e um cen\u00e1rio macroecon\u00f4mico fraco alimentado pela invas\u00e3o russa da Ucr\u00e2nia. A \u00faltima previs\u00e3o chega cerca de uma semana […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-noticias"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35195\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}