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Por Bernardo Caram<\/p>\n
BRAS\u00cdLIA (Reuters) – A probabilidade de a infla\u00e7\u00e3o ultrapassar os limites do intervalo de toler\u00e2ncia da meta este ano subiu de 88% na estimativa de mar\u00e7o para 100%, conforme Relat\u00f3rio Trimestral de Infla\u00e7\u00e3o divulgado nesta quinta-feira pelo Banco Central, que tamb\u00e9m aumentou a estimativa da chance de estouro em 2023, de 12% para 29%.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs proje\u00e7\u00f5es de infla\u00e7\u00e3o subiram em todo o horizonte considerado\u201d, disse o BC no documento.<\/p>\n
De acordo com o BC, entre os fatores que levaram \u00e0 revis\u00e3o das estimativas para cima est\u00e3o a infla\u00e7\u00e3o recente maior do que o esperado, revis\u00e3o das proje\u00e7\u00e3o de curto prazo, eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo e a propaga\u00e7\u00e3o das press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias por in\u00e9rcia.<\/p>\n
A autoridade monet\u00e1ria tamb\u00e9m mencionou o crescimento das expectativas de mercado para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o, indicadores de atividade econ\u00f4mica mais fortes que o esperado e aumento da taxa de juros real neutra.<\/p>\n
A meta de infla\u00e7\u00e3o para este ano, j\u00e1 abandonada pelo Banco Central, \u00e9 de 3,5%, com toler\u00e2ncia de 1,5 ponto percentual para mais ou para menos. Para 2023, atual foco da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria, a meta \u00e9 3,25%, tamb\u00e9m com a mesma margem.<\/p>\n
O relat\u00f3rio aponta que no trimestre encerrado em maio a varia\u00e7\u00e3o do o \u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) ficou 1,08 ponto percentual maior que o esperado pelo BC em seu cen\u00e1rio de refer\u00eancia feito em mar\u00e7o.<\/p>\n
“A surpresa inflacion\u00e1ria no trimestre decorreu do comportamento dos pre\u00e7os livres, principalmente de alimentos. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o de servi\u00e7os e de bens industriais se mant\u00e9m alta, e os recentes choques continuam levando a um forte aumento nos componentes ligados a alimentos e combust\u00edveis”, afirmou.<\/p>\n
Segundo o BC os componentes mais sens\u00edveis ao ciclo econ\u00f4mico e \u00e0 pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria seguem com infla\u00e7\u00e3o elevada e houve acelera\u00e7\u00e3o das diversas medidas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o subjacente –que desconsideram elementos mais vol\u00e1teis.<\/p>\n
O relat\u00f3rio foi apresentado com uma semana de atraso por conta da greve de servidores do \u00f3rg\u00e3o. Normalmente, a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 seguida de uma entrevista \u00e0 imprensa pelo presidente do BC, o que n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 feito nesta edi\u00e7\u00e3o porque Campos Neto j\u00e1 concedeu a coletiva na semana passada, quando parte das proje\u00e7\u00f5es do documento foram antecipadas.<\/p>\n
Na ocasi\u00e3o, o presidente do BC disse que o pior momento da infla\u00e7\u00e3o no Brasil j\u00e1 passou e que o pa\u00eds est\u00e1 muito perto de finalizar todo o trabalho de eleva\u00e7\u00e3o de juros para domar a alta de pre\u00e7os.<\/p>\n
Em maio, o IPCA desacelerou e veio abaixo do esperado pelo mercado ao registrar uma alta de 0,47%. O IPCA-15, no entanto, voltou a acelerar em junho e ficou em 0,69%, acima das expectativas, com a taxa acumulada em 12 meses permanecendo acima de 12%.<\/p>\n
Em junho, o Banco Central subiu a taxa Selic em 0,5 ponto percentual, a 13,25% ao ano, e disse que antev\u00ea um novo ajuste, de igual ou menor magnitude, na reuni\u00e3o de agosto. A autoridade monet\u00e1ria n\u00e3o especificou na ocasi\u00e3o se esse seria o \u00faltimo ajuste do agressivo ciclo de aperto monet\u00e1rio iniciado em 2021.<\/p>\n
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Por Bernardo Caram BRAS\u00cdLIA (Reuters) – A probabilidade de a infla\u00e7\u00e3o ultrapassar os limites do intervalo de toler\u00e2ncia da meta este ano subiu de 88% na estimativa de mar\u00e7o para 100%, conforme Relat\u00f3rio Trimestral de Infla\u00e7\u00e3o divulgado nesta quinta-feira pelo Banco Central, que tamb\u00e9m aumentou a estimativa da chance de estouro em 2023, de 12% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-noticias"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35331"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35331\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}