{"id":7937,"date":"2020-06-01T10:50:25","date_gmt":"2020-06-01T13:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/?p=7937"},"modified":"2020-06-01T10:51:19","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T13:51:19","slug":"focus-mercado-financeiro-estima-contracao-de-625-do-pib-em-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amarilfranklin.com.br\/index.php\/2020\/06\/01\/focus-mercado-financeiro-estima-contracao-de-625-do-pib-em-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Focus: mercado financeiro estima contra\u00e7\u00e3o de 6,25% do PIB em 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”3.22″ transparent_background=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” custom_padding=”0px|||||”][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”3.25″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.25″ custom_padding=”|||” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” _builder_version=”4.4.7″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” hover_enabled=”0″]

Economistas consultados esperam taxa Selic encerrando 2020 em 2,25% ao ano, com aumento para 3,38%, em 2021<\/h4>\n

Mariana d’\u00c1vila<\/p>\n

01\/06\/2020<\/p>\n

S\u00c3O PAULO \u2013 Com o enfraquecimento da economia em meio ao avan\u00e7o do coronav\u00edrus no pa\u00eds, o mercado financeiro v\u00ea uma contra\u00e7\u00e3o cada vez maior para o PIB em 2020.<\/p>\n

De acordo com o relat\u00f3rio Focus divulgado pelo Banco Central na manh\u00e3 desta segunda-feira (1), a mediana das proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o desempenho do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro caiu pela 16\u00aa vez consecutiva, de 6,25% em 2020, ante expectativa anterior de retra\u00e7\u00e3o de 5,89%.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 para 2021, o mercado manteve a estimativa de crescimento de 3,50%.<\/p>\n

Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 taxa b\u00e1sica de juros, houve alta na expectativa para a Selic em 2021, de 3,29% para 3,38% ao ano. Ainda de acordo com os economistas consultados pelo Focus, a Selic deve subir para 5,13% a.a. ao fim de 2022 \u2013 sem altera\u00e7\u00e3o em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao \u00faltimo levantamento.<\/p>\n

Para este ano, a estimativa foi mantida em 2,25% a.a., com a previs\u00e3o de corte de 0,75 ponto percentual na pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00e3o do Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (Copom), no dia 17 de junho.<\/p>\n

Por fim, as expectativas para infla\u00e7\u00e3o foram levemente reduzidas.<\/p>\n

Para o \u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), a proje\u00e7\u00e3o de alta passou de 1,57% para 1,55%, em 2020. Tamb\u00e9m houve ajuste na proje\u00e7\u00e3o para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2021, de 3,14% para 3,10%.<\/p>\n

No que tange \u00e0s previs\u00f5es para o c\u00e2mbio, o relat\u00f3rio Focus revelou que a estimativa para o d\u00f3lar neste ano \u00e9 de R$ 5,40, com leve aumento de R$ 5,03 para R$ 5,08 em 2021.<\/p>\n

Top 5<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Entre os economistas que mais acertam as previs\u00f5es, reunidos na categoria \u201cTop 5\u201d do relat\u00f3rio Focus, houve revis\u00f5es nas estimativas para infla\u00e7\u00e3o e c\u00e2mbio.<\/p>\n

Segundo o relat\u00f3rio do BC, o grupo \u201cTop 5 m\u00e9dio prazo\u201d v\u00ea alta de 1,31% para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o este ano, frente \u00e0 estimativa de 1,33% na semana anterior. A proje\u00e7\u00e3o para 2021, por sua vez, foi mantida em 3,00%.<\/p>\n

Com rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar, houve queda nas expectativas para 2020, de R$ 5,50 para R$ 5,40, e de R$ 5,30 para R$ 5,20, em 2021.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 a taxa b\u00e1sica de juros deve encerrar este ano em 2,25% a.a., subindo para 2,88% em 2021 \u2013 sem altera\u00e7\u00f5es com rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao \u00faltimo levantamento.<\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_nav in_same_term=”on” show_next=”off” admin_label=”Navega\u00e7\u00e3o da postagem” _builder_version=”3.0.87″ use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” hide_prev=”off” hide_next=”on”] [\/et_pb_post_nav][et_pb_post_nav in_same_term=”on” show_prev=”off” admin_label=”Navega\u00e7\u00e3o da postagem” _builder_version=”3.0.87″ use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” hide_prev=”on” hide_next=”off”] [\/et_pb_post_nav][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row admin_label=”Linha” _builder_version=”3.25″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.25″ custom_padding=”|||” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” _builder_version=”3.27.4″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]

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